As OPEC+ ramps up oil output amid soaring summer demand in August 2025, experts discuss whether this move will ease fuel costs for consumers.
OPEC+ has announced a significant increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil production for August 2025, marking an accelerated unwinding of earlier voluntary output cuts.
This move comes amid rising global demand during the northern hemisphere’s summer and reflects the alliance’s effort to stabilize volatile energy markets while reclaiming market share in a shifting global landscape.
Industry experts see this decision as a strategic balancing act. Wael Makarem, Chief Market Strategist at Exness, describes the increase as a sign of OPEC+’s “strategic flexibility,” pointing out that the timing aligns with a surge in summer energy consumption and a market that has largely adjusted to previous production hikes.
Makarem emphasizes that OPEC+ carefully calibrates its output based on global demand forecasts, aiming to avoid oversupply, maintain price stability critical to member countries’ budgets, and protect market share.
Similarly, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei highlights that despite recent output rises, crude inventories have not seen significant buildup, underscoring tight supply-demand conditions. He also stresses the importance of market stability and warns about risks from underinvestment in oil and gas infrastructure.
From North America, Andrew Botterill, Partner for Energy at Deloitte Canada, interprets the increased production as a move to regain market share lost to non-OPEC producers such as the US and Canada during the post-pandemic recovery.
“Post-COVID we saw a lot of economies kind of wake up and a lot of demand increases, and we saw all-time highs for production from the U.S.; Canada as well was included. So, as (OPEC) has seen countries invest and invest in their energy, OPEC is trying to get their share back,” said Botterill.
Botterill acknowledges that strong global demand currently allows OPEC+ to raise output without drastically lowering prices but cautions that oversupply risks may emerge later in the year if demand softens.
European and global perspectives add further nuance. Giovanni Staunovo, Commodity Analyst at UBS, believes the market remains sufficiently tight to absorb the additional barrels in the near term, helped by seasonal factors like higher summer travel and falling US diesel inventories.
However, he points to rising risks from ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that could loosen market tightness in the next 6 to 12 months, applying downward pressure on prices.
Doug King, CEO of RCMA Capital, notes that the current physical market conditions—especially high diesel premiums and low visible inventories, suggest limited room for a sharp price decline unless inventory levels increase significantly.
Independent analyst Neil Atkinson, former head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division, agrees that while the market can handle the immediate increase, factors such as weaker Chinese consumption and election-year geopolitics could quickly erode this buffer.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil supply will rise by an average of 2.1 million bpd throughout 2025. However, the agency also warns of a potential supply glut in the final quarter if demand growth fails to keep pace with this accelerated supply increase.
In the US and Europe, OPEC+’s output hike is largely seen as positive, with the potential to ease fuel prices, curb inflation, and boost economic activity—especially ahead of key elections. However, some analysts warn that lower oil prices could dampen investment in renewables, slowing the energy transition.
The move also reflects OPEC+’s strategy to regain market share from rising non-OPEC producers like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
For oil-importing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, increased supply and softer prices could ease inflation and reduce import costs. But with uneven demand in some emerging markets, how quickly this supply is absorbed remains uncertain. Price stability is essential for their economic resilience.
For countries embroiled in conflict, such as Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, Palestine et al, the oil supply dynamics are more complex. According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, even smaller regional conflicts can send oil prices up by 10–15% within just a few days. And if a bigger conflict breaks out—especially one involving major oil producers—prices could jump by 25–30% or even more.
Increased global output can help moderate price spikes often triggered by geopolitical tensions. For instance, recent conflicts have caused brief price surges, but OPEC+’s decision to boost supply helps offset some of these upward pressures.
Russia, a key OPEC+ member, benefits from higher production and revenues that can support its economy despite sanctions, underscoring the country’s continued influence in global oil markets.
OPEC+’s decision to increase oil output by more than half a million barrels per day appears to reflect a multifaceted strategy: stabilizing a tight market, managing price volatility, and reinforcing long-term market share amid evolving global energy dynamics.
While lower fuel prices may offer short-term relief, the long-term impact on supply-demand balance, energy transition, and geopolitical stability remains unclear. Analysts will be watching closely in the months ahead to see if OPEC+’s move brings stability—or new challenges.
