Persistent dry conditions and climate change is threatening to escalate the transboundary haze crisis across South East Asia.
The latest advisory from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which monitors weather and climate systems in the South East Asia region, has reported an alarming increase in the number of fire hotspots in early 2025, indicating an imminent and intense transboundary haze crisis.
“In recent days, dry weather conditions were observed over the Mekong sub-region with gradually increasing hotspot counts. There was a total of 164 and 335 hotspots detected in the Mekong sub-region on 31 Dec 2024 and 1 Jan 2025 respectively,” said the advisory indicating an alarming early rise in the number of fire hotspots.
The prevailing winds blowing from the northeast or east are forecast to strengthen in the coming weeks, while dry weather conditions are set to intensify. “Under these conditions, the hotspot and smoke haze situation could worsen with an increased risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence”, added the advisory.
Peatlands, with a carbon-rich soil, are the main contributor to the fire hotspots in South East Asia. While over 70% of Southeast Asia’s peatlands are in Indonesia, the remainder are spread across Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Land use change or slash- and-burn farming in these peatlands, worsened by dry weather winds and long-term climate change make peatland the eye of the haze storm in the region.
Globally, climate change and land-use changes are likely to increase wildfires incidents by up to 14% by 20230, and 30% by 2050, says the UNEP and GRID-Arendal report.
The crisis of transboundary haze in the region dates back to 1972. What began as an environmental issue is now a full-blown crisis, affecting public health, economies, and ecosystems across the region.
Impact on Agriculture: Studies have shown that prolonged haze exposure significantly reduces agricultural yields by blocking sunlight and restricting photosynthesis. The result is reduced crop yields and restricted supply chains..
Impact on Health: The health implications are equally dire. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that air pollution contributed to 4.2 million premature deaths in 2019, with the majority occurring in low- and middle-income countries, including those in Southeast Asia. Exposure to haze has been consistently linked to increased rates of respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological illnesses.
Economic Losses: The economic toll is staggering: in 2019, the World Bank estimated that air pollution from PM2.5 led to premature deaths and illnesses, costing East Asia and the Pacific 9.3% of its GDP, amounting to over $2.5 trillion.
Regional Collaboration to Fight Transboundary Haze Pollution: In order to tackle with the haze pollution, all ASEAN Member States (AMS) ratified the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution (AATHP) in 2015. While there is significant progress seen on areas such as forest fire monitoring, early warning systems, and the framing of laws to prevent fire hotspots, the review in 2022 revealed insufficient progress in the zero-burning enforcement or incentives. A very important recommendation was made by the review, which was to incorporate alternative approaches to zero-burning policies to support community livelihoods.
The goal post to eliminate the regional transboundary haze pollution has shifted to 2030. In order to achieve the goal, it is crucial that regulation and enforcement agencies in AMS facilitate best farming practices, especially for small land-holders, and involve all stakeholders at every level for a collective action to prevent and control land and forest fire hotspots.
