The Marcos-Duterte rivalry is heating up. Midterm election results have shaken the Senate, with detained ex-president Duterte winning a local race from ICC custody. His daughter, Sara Duterte, once perceived as a political pariah, is gaining ground despite facing impeachment.
What no political analysts predicted, the results of the 2025 Philippine midterm elections have created a dramatic twist in the country’s political landscape.
Allies of detained former president Rodrigo Duterte showed consolidation of strength in the senate. While several candidates aligned with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. underperformed, it delivered a stinging blow to the current administration and has ignited a political storm three years ahead of the next presidential election – expected in 2028.
80-year-old Duterte, currently imprisoned at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague on charges of crimes against humanity, won the mayoralty of Davao City — his longtime stronghold — in absentia. In what might be one of the most surreal chapters of Philippine politics, a man facing international trial is now an elected public official thousands of miles from home.
The midterms were always going to be a referendum of sorts — not just on Marcos Jr.’s presidency but on the nation’s tolerance for political dynasties, legal controversies, and entrenched loyalties. Yet few anticipated the sheer force with which the Duterte faction would rebound. Senate allies like Christopher “Bong” Go and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, both staunch defenders of the Duterte brand, topped the polls.
These results have immediate consequences: the Senate is the stage where Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of the former president, now faces impeachment proceedings stemming from allegations of fund misuse during her tenure in the education department. With the new Senate composition leaning in her favour, her chances of surviving the trial have grown significantly — and with it, her potential to mount a 2028 presidential bid remains alive.
Sara Duterte has called the impeachment a “glorified disqualification,” arguing that it’s politically motivated. “It’s all about 2028,” she said in a press conference, accusing her opponents of being driven by “cash, cocaine, and champagne.”
Just two years ago, the Marcos-Duterte alliance was seen as unbeatable. Bongbong Marcos clinched the presidency in 2022 with Sara Duterte as his running mate. It was a strategic pairing that unified the north and south, the old dictatorship’s nostalgia with the iron-fisted populism of Duterte’s Davao legacy.
But the alliance unravelled quickly.
By mid-2024, Sara had resigned from Marcos’s Cabinet, citing fundamental disagreements. The breakup grew more visible — and personal — as Marcos’s approval ratings began to slide and his sister, Senator Imee Marcos, began distancing herself from his policy decisions. By 2025, the political battlefield had fully formed: the midterms became a proxy war between two rival dynasties, each fielding their own slates and fighting for control of the Senate.
The outcome was a fractured Senate that now reflects not just competing political ideologies, but an escalating dynastic war that is set to dominate the run-up to 2028.
Rodrigo Duterte’s Davao mayoral win, despite being incarcerated abroad, underscores a paradox that continues to define Philippine democracy: legal battles don’t necessarily equate to political loss.
The former president is detained by the ICC on charges related to his infamous war on drugs, which left tens of thousands dead. The court accuses him of crimes against humanity. Still, his name — and his legacy — remain powerful in Davao and beyond. Voters turned out in droves to ensure his symbolic return to local leadership, despite the obvious logistical and legal hurdles of being sworn in from a European prison cell.
Legal experts are now debating whether Duterte can take his oath via video call, or if the Philippine government will push back against ICC jurisdiction. But whether or not he is ever seated as mayor, the message is clear: the Duterte brand is far from defeated.
President Marcos Jr. finds himself in a precarious position. Midterms typically bolster an incumbent’s power, allowing them to consolidate legislative support for the remainder of their term. But this election told a different story.
Not only did his administration’s candidates underperform, but the internal discord within the Marcos camp is becoming difficult to ignore. Imee Marcos, long seen as the political strategist in the family, has grown increasingly critical of her brother’s leadership style and key decisions, hinting at a potential internal power shift within the Marcos bloc itself.
With his approval ratings on a downward slope and his Senate control weakened, Marcos Jr. now faces an uphill battle to push his agenda — and a significant challenge in keeping his political coalition intact as the next presidential race draws nearer.
The dominance of the Marcos and Duterte families reflects a larger, persistent issue in Philippine politics: the unchecked rise of political dynasties. Despite a constitutional provision discouraging dynastic rule, no enabling legislation has ever been passed, leaving the door wide open for families to recycle power across generations.
The 2025 midterm results highlight both the deep roots and resilience of political dynasties in the Philippines, despite scandals, global scrutiny, and internal rifts. The closely watched race for 12 Senate seats was crucial—had Marcos secured a majority, it would have boosted his legislative and economic agenda. The elections also offered a glimpse into the 2028 presidential race, with voters focused on jobs, poverty, healthcare, and national security, especially in the South China Sea.
Political analyst Ronald Llamas said the election results showed “a vote against the administration,” not necessarily support for the Dutertes, as several anti-Duterte candidates also secured wins, especially in the lower house of Congress.
“It was like a public vote of confidence in the president—and it seems the government lost,” Llamas explained.
What was supposed to be a routine midterm has now become a launchpad for 2028, where the battle lines are already being drawn between two powerful clans with long memories and even longer ambitions.
