Tensions are rising due to alleged internal power struggles and Eritrean involvement, threatening a fragile peace. The situation, still recovering from the 2020-2022 conflict, remains delicate, with fears of broader regional instability.
Just over two years after a devastating conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives, Ethiopia’s Tigray region is once again teetering on the brink of wider conflict.
Rapidly escalating tensions surrounding the leadership of Tigray’s transitional authority have ignited fears that the fragile peace could shatter, potentially drawing in neighbouring Eritrea and plunging the Horn of Africa into further turmoil. With roughly 15 percent of Tigray’s seven million residents still internally displaced, the region remains deeply vulnerable, making the current dispute a critical juncture with potentially catastrophic regional implications.
The Horn of Africa, already struggling with instability from the civil war in Sudan, would face even greater regional destabilization. A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, both powerful military forces in the region, could spread instability, potentially drawing in other nations and worsening existing conflicts.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been historically complex and often fraught with conflict.
Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a long and bloody struggle. Initially, relations were amicable, but a border dispute over the town of Badme led to a brutal two-year war (1998-2000) that claimed the lives of tens of thousands.
While a peace agreement was signed in Algiers in 2000, the border issue remained a significant point of contention, leading to a prolonged period of “no war, no peace.
A significant shift occurred in 2018 when Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister of Ethiopia and initiated a rapprochement with Eritrea and its long-time President Isaias Afwerki.
This thaw in relations was celebrated, and Abiy even received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts.7 However, this newfound amity proved to be short-lived.
The recent surge in tensions is multifaceted, stemming from the aftermath of the Tigray War (2020-2022), Ethiopia’s ambition for Red Sea access, and Eritrea’s alleged interference in Ethiopia’s internal affairs.
During the Tigray War, Eritrean forces allied with the Ethiopian government against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
However, the subsequent Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, which ended the war, excluded Eritrea from the negotiations, reportedly causing resentment in Asmara.
Tigray remains unstable despite the peace agreement, with internal power struggles within the TPLF escalating tensions.
A faction loyal to former president Debretsion Gebremichael is reportedly aligned with Eritrea, clashing with the interim administration led by Getachew Reda. The Ethiopian government views this infighting as a significant security threat.
Ethiopia’s long-standing desire for direct access to the Red Sea has intensified. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emphasized that gaining access to a port is vital for Ethiopia’s survival, especially as the country relies on Djibouti’s port.
Ethiopia has shown interest in Eritrea’s coastline, particularly the port of Assab, which Eritrea sees as a direct threat to its sovereignty. Eritrea’s allegedly increasing interference in Ethiopia’s internal matters, including supporting dissident TPLF factions and escalating military presence along the border, adds to the tension.
Additionally, Eritrea’s exclusion from the Pretoria peace agreement, despite its significant role in the conflict, has left Asmara feeling overlooked, further deepening the rift with Ethiopia.
A renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would have severe consequences, starting with a humanitarian catastrophe. The Tigray War already caused immense suffering, with hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced, and a new conflict would only worsen this crisis, leading to more death and displacement.
Economically, the war would bring major disruptions to both countries, hindering development and worsening poverty. It could also affect vital shipping routes in the Red Sea, which are crucial for global trade.
As instability spreads, it would likely increase migration, with more refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries or even farther, including Europe, seeking safety from the violence.
Despite rising tensions, there are efforts to prevent a full-scale war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says that Ethiopia has no intention of invading Eritrea and aims to resolve issues through peaceful talks.
Regional and international actors, including the African Union, the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, and countries like Saudi Arabia and Kenya, are pushing for de-escalation and dialogue. Some of these nations are also working behind the scenes to persuade Ethiopia to avoid military action.
One possible solution being discussed is for Ethiopia to lease part of Eritrea’s coastline, which could benefit both countries economically by providing Ethiopia with better access to the sea. Ethiopia is also exploring other sea access options through Somaliland and Somalia. At the same time, efforts to stabilize the Tigray region and address internal conflicts within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are seen as crucial to preventing external interference.
The future of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations hinges on resolving Tigray’s internal conflicts and addressing Ethiopia’s need for Red Sea access.
Years of mistrust will, no doubt, require sustained efforts to rebuild trust. Regional and international support for dialogue is crucial, as the situation remains fragile and requires urgent action to avoid conflict and ensure stability.
